According to Olivier Gantois, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries, Energy and Mobility (Ufip EM), the strikes should not lead to shortages since stocks are full in France.
This Wednesday, March 7 coincides with the start of a new day of action against pension reform. The oil unions are particularly mobilized. The CGT launched a renewable strikewhile the CFDT is currently limited to a day of action.
Nevertheless the specter of the October fuel shortage resurfaces. However, the state of fuel stocks in France is not the same as at the end of last year. Witness the words of Olivier Gantois, head of Ufip EM (French Union of Petroleum Industries, Energy and Mobility):
“The stocks are full. To compare to the recent past, at the end of September 2022, stocks were very low. Remittances from the State and certain distributors had increased considerably on September 1 (30 centimes from the State, 20 from TotalEnergies). Suddenly, the attractiveness was high, which had an effect on stocks. »
“At the time when we should have reconstituted them, six out of eight refineries in France were also shut down. Today, we had time to stock again, because we knew that the protests on the pension reform were going to lead to strikes. But you can’t know how long you can hold out. Strike calls differ. It is unclear how many refineries will be on strike. »
Number of unknowns regarding the March 7 strike
So, there are many unknowns. In the event of a long strike and strong mobilization, difficulties may arise. Olivier Gantois specifies:
“The first question is how many refineries will be affected by the strike. The second is how many and which personnel will be on strike. Sometimes, as refineries operate in three-eight, one of the teams is on strike, so we stop everything. The next one is no longer, so we restart everything. For shipments, we can do stop & go, for production not. Third, for refineries on strike: how long? On a day, there will be no consequences, if it lasts several weeks, there may be consequences. »
“In January-February, the strikes only affected the shipping services to depots and service stations for fuel already manufactured. If ever the strike also concerns the personnel who operate the units, the management may stop the units as in October, but it is impossible to predict. »
Three to four months of stock
Indicatively, the country has three to four months of stock, also details our interlocutor. Nevertheless it depends on the use of users, but also on the distribution of stocks by region :
“It is impossible to predict the lifespan of stocks. We can consider, in a vaguely indicative way, that we have between three and four months of consumption in stock. However, there are nuances by region. You have to look in detail, when you start to be in tension. »
Tension and rising prices?
A break in the fuel supply chain and the need to organize new stocks could in any case create tension in the market. Enough to drive up priceslike last October:
“We had relatively high prices at the start of the year because the sector was preparing for the social movements to come. Strikes were announced in January, in February. There now, there are some at the beginning of March. It was announced and we had to get organized to restock. »
“To make a little history, we had social movements until mid-November 2022 in the refineries, before the latter restarted. As a result, stocks were very, very low in all oil logistics in France at that time. »
“In November, December and probably a little January, we had to replenish fuel stocks, both diesel and gasoline. This had the effect of stretching the market. Since then, the stocks are full, the refineries have not stopped. There were disruptions to shipments for one or two days but not refineries. We have had a comfortable stock level since February and demand is easing. »
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