As sales of electric vehicles accelerate, what will happen to thermal vehicles? According to a recent report, the peak of sales of thermal cars was reached in 2017. Since then, their share has been decreasing every year and this is accelerating.
Between 62 and 86% of new electric vehicles in 2030
The RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) and the Bezos Earth Fund collaborated in the development of this new study. They analyze the evolution of the automobile fleet and try to prove that electrified models are progressing much faster than we think. In this report entitled X-change : Carswhere I read that ” The rapid growth of electric vehicles means that demand for thermal cars has already reached its peak “. The authors believe that the end of the era of the internal combustion engine has begun.
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Driven by Northern Europe and China, electric models are experiencing exponential growth. According to their data, it takes about six years for electric cars to go from 1% to 10% of new car sales and another six years to reach 80%. We can read that “ by 2030, electrics will dominate global car sales “. Researchers estimate between 62 and 86% the share of global sales of electric cars by 2030.
Sales of thermal cars are collapsing
For China it’s even better: at least 90%. The country is currently going through a major transformation of its automobile fleet. Government subsidies encourage the Chinese to go electric. Thermal models already belong to another era within the Middle Kingdom. Conversely, the market share of cars with internal combustion engines is collapsing. Worldwide, it is expected to fall between 14 and 38% of sales by 2030. Their peak was reached in 2017.
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The authors of the report also question the future of thermal cars on the road. Over the past decade, the number of cars scrapped each year has been between 40 and 50 million. This figure will be between 60 and 70 million by 2030. Recycling is a challenge that will have to be addressed urgently. Unsurprisingly, oil demand will also fall in the future. According to the RMI and Bezos Earth Fund study, by 2040 the automotive sector’s oil demand will fall to zero.
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