Why are the prices of electric vehicles expected to drop dramatically in 5 years?

Main brake for motorists who wish to adopt this new generation of cars, the price of electric vehicles is expected to drop considerably in the coming years. The tipping point should occur, at the latest, in 2027. By this date, these cars would become, on average, less expensive than the equivalent gasoline and diesel models.

According to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) report produced for the NGO Transport and environment (T&E), the curves will cross within 5 to 7 years depending on the type of vehicle. In detail, electric light commercial vehicles should be as inexpensive to produce as thermal vehicles in this segment from 2025. The same should then be true for sedans and cars. SUV in 2026 then city cars in 2027. One electric sedan cost on average nearly 40,000 euros (HT) in 2020, double that of a gasoline or diesel model.

An electric city car around 10,000 euros

From 2026, these same sedans should come back to less than 20,000 euros, with a downward trend, even if much less pronounced, in the following years. By 2030, an electric SUV and city car should cost on average around 20,000 and 10,000 euros respectively, two to three times less than today.

This spectacular fall in prices (of the order of more than 50% in just 6 or 7 years) is explained above all by a continuous fall in the production costs of batteries lithium-ion, but also by setting up production chains specially dedicated to electricity and volumes increasingly important production.

Still according to this study, and with a political will to support this energetic transition, vehicles with a electric battery could represent nearly 100% of new vehicle sales in Europe by 2035. In any case, this goes in the direction of history, all manufacturers automobiles having already announced that they want to produce exclusively vehicles without the slightest program from CO2 by 2050 at the latest.